With a carefully constructed algorithm and some solid science, we’ve calculated how many points Nottingham Forest will gain in the Premier League next season… based on the last time the Reds played a competitive game — home and away — against the other 19 clubs
6 August 2022: Newcastle United (A)
23 August 2017: Newcastle United 3-2 (A)
Newly minted Newcastle United — powered by Saudi petro dollars — were, of course, in the Championship not so long ago. But our last away game at St. James’ Park was the season following their promotion back to the Premier League, as we beat them 3-2 in the second round of the EFL Cup, courtesy of goals from Jason Cummings and Tyler Walker.
THREE POINTS
13 August 2022: West Ham United (H)
5 January 2014: West Ham United 5-0 (H)
West Ham, also in the Championship as recently as 2012, came a cropper in the third round of the FA Cup at the City Ground — our most recent home match against the Hammers. Djamel Abdoun’s Panenka penalty kicked things off before Jamie Paterson scored a hat-trick and Andy Reid finished off the rout.
THREE POINTS
20 August 2022: Everton (A)
30 January 1999: Everton 1-0 (A)
Having dodged relegation last season, Everton remain the second-longest continuous serving club in the Premier League — after Arsenal — having spent just four seasons outside of the top flight in their history. And without a cup game this century, you have to go back to 1999 — one of just seven wins that season — for our last game at Goodison Park, a 1-0 win thanks to Pierre van Hooijdonk.
THREE POINTS
27 August 2022: Tottenham Hotspur (H)
2 March 2005: Tottenham Hotspur 0-3 (H)
After grabbing a commendable away draw at White Hart Lane, in the fifth round of the FA Cup — Gareth Taylor scoring after a mix-up between Ledley King and Paul Robinson — Gary Megson’s side had less luck at home. Spurs comfortably advanced to the quarter-finals with goals from Noe Pamarot, Robbie Keane and Mido.
NO POINTS
31 August 2022: Manchester City (A)
3 January 2009: Manchester City 3-0 (A)
While 2008/09 was almost a disastrous relegation season, caretaker manager John Pemberton masterminded a memorable 3-0 win at the then Eastlands Stadium. Goals from Nathan Tyson, Robbie Earnshaw and Joe Garner beat a Man City side containing the likes of Joe Hart, Vincent Kompany, Pablo Zabaleta and Daniel Sturridge.
THREE POINTS
3 September 2022: AFC Bournemouth (H)
14 August 2021: AFC Bournemouth 1-2 (H)
The first home game of last season was a typical performance under Chris Hughton — show some promise and a lot of effort before eventually fizzling out into a 2-1 loss. The Cherries went on to secure second place… the revolution at the City Ground was still a month away at this point.
NO POINTS
10 September 2022: Leeds United (A)
10 August 2019: Leeds United 1-1 (A)
Leeds eventually went up as champions in the season Covid-19 arrived, but the West Yorkshire side failed to beat Sabri Lamouchi’s side home or away. Forest’s first point of the season, after narrowly losing to West Brom on the opening day, came after Lewis Grabban equalised following Pablo Hernández’s opener at Elland Road.
ONE POINT
17 September 2022: Fulham (H)
24 October 2021: Fulham 0-4 (H)
Steve Cooper’s first loss as Forest manager was to eventual champions Fulham, and after going six games unbeaten it was a wake-up call for the Reds. A Djed Spence own goal, a brace for Aleksandar Mitrović and a quick follow-up from Neeskens Kebano saw the Cottagers hit four past Brice Samba, as the home side picked up five yellow cards.
NO POINTS
1 October 2022: Leicester City (A)
9 November 2013: Leicester City 2-0 (A)
A certain Scotsman had returned as manager — before finding himself out of a job by March, as Forest limped to an 11th place finish — and despite Leicester’s dominance in the league we picked up three points at the King Power Stadium. Simon Cox and Jamie Mackie scored before half-time as the home side lost, one of just six losses that season.
THREE POINTS
8 October 2022: Aston Villa (H)
13 March 2019: Aston Villa 1-3 (H)
The eventual play-off winners arrived at the City Ground as Martin O’Neill’s side began their slide away from the top six. An early opener from Jack Colback was cancelled out by John McGinn before he added a second and Kortney Hause finished off the game in the second half. O’Neill, who replaced Aitor Karanka in January, was out of a job by June as the revolving managers door kept going.
NO POINTS
15 October 2022: Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)
20 January 2018: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0 (A)
Another miserable season as Mark Warburton left, Aitor Karanka arrived and Wolves went on to become champions, returning to the Premier League after a six-year absence. This was the first of just five wins in the second half of the season for Forest as Kieron Dowell and Ben Osborn took the points at Molineux.
THREE POINTS
18 October 2022: Brighton & Hove Albion (A)
12 August 2016: Brighton & Hove Albion 0-3 (A)
Away days at Brighton were always good fun… even if you lost 3-0. Chris Hughton’s side went on to gain automatic promotion while Forest avoided relegation on the final day of the season. In just the second game of the season, future Reds Anthony Knockaert and Glenn Murray scored as we began our slide down the table.
NO POINTS
22 October 2022: Liverpool (H)
20 March 2022: Liverpool 0-1 (H)
The FA Cup run finally came to an end as Diogo Jota’s goal sent Liverpool through to the semi-finals, but it was close and proved that Cooper’s side can hold their own with the big boys. The Merseyside club’s previous visit to the City Ground was back in April 1999 when goals from Dougie Freedman and van Hooijdonk resulted in a 2-2 draw.
NO POINTS
29 October 2022: Arsenal (A)
24 September 2019: Arsenal 0-5 (A)
In sharp contrast to the cup games last season, our EFL Cup visit to the Emirates back in 2019 was boys amongst men. Forest spent large parts of the game chasing their shadows, while Arsenal showed the gulf in class as the Gunners put five past on-loan Aro Muric. The next visit will hopefully be different.
NO POINTS
5 November 2022: Brentford (H)
12 December 2020: Brentford 1-3 (H)
Just 18 months ago, Brentford were hanging around at the top of the Championship while we’d assumed our familiar bottom-half position. To be fair, Joe Worrall’s 90th-minute consolation goal sparked something of a revival — having lost six out of seven, Chris Hughton’s side lost only two of the next 15 games. The West London side went on to beat Steve Cooper’s Swansea City in the play-off final.
NO POINTS
12 November 2022: Crystal Palace (H)
29 December 2012: Crystal Palace 2-2 (H)
It was early days in the Fawaz years, but we knew all was not well by then. After beating Leeds 4-2 on Boxing Day, Sean O’Driscoll was out and Alex McLeish was in — for just 40 days as it turned out. In response to a brace from Glenn Murray, Billy Sharp and a late equaliser from Andy Reid rescued a point for the Reds at home.
ONE POINT
26 December 2022: Manchester United (A)
26 December 1998: Manchester United 0-3 (A)
You have to go all the way back to 1998 for our last appearance at Old Trafford, a season in which we slumped while Alex Ferguson’s side went on to win the treble. Unsurprisingly we lost in a Boxing Day fixture we repeat this year — goals from Ronny Johnsen and Ryan Giggs settled the game as Dave Bassett’s side awaited their third win of the season.
NO POINTS
31 December 2022: Chelsea (H)
20 February 1999: Chelsea 1-3 (H)
Chelsea followed the Man Utd game a few weeks later in February 1999, and again it was no surprise we faltered against Gianluca Vialli’s side. The Blues went on to win the FA Cup and finish fifth in the league, while newly installed manager Ron Atkinson saw the Reds relegated by 24 April.
NO POINTS
2 January 2023: Southampton (A)
10 September 2011: Southampton 2-3 (A)
Our last visit to St Mary’s Stadium, home of our biggest Premier League rivals (ahem, @dalesilvermat3), was back in 2011. A pair of Rickie Lambert goals and one apiece for Matt Derbyshire and Radoslaw Majewski saw it remain 2-2 until the 83rd-minute when Lambert completed his hat-trick. Southampton went on to be promoted in second place while Forest had, frankly, a heart-breaking season.
NO POINTS
14 January 2023: Leicester City (H)
6 February 2022: Leicester City 4-1 (H)
Brendan Rodgers’ side might be after revenge this season after they were thoroughly humiliated on live television as Cooper’s steamrollered them in the fourth round of the FA Cup. The holders conceded three in the first half, thanks to Philip Zinckernagel, Brennan Johnson and Joe Worrall, before Djed Spence added a fourth in the second half. Sensational stuff.
THREE POINTS
21 January 2023: AFC Bournemouth (A)
3 May 2022: AFC Bournemouth 0-1 (A)
Nobody has forgotten this game, when the impossible distinctly looked possible… snatching automatic promotion was in our hands, and a disallowed penalty decision could have seen both teams’ seasons take a different turn. As it was, Kieffer Moore’s goal after 83 minutes settled the contest and the Cherries eventually grabbed second place.
NO POINTS
4 February 2023: Leeds United (H)
8 February 2020: Leeds United 2-0 (H)
The highlight of that season before it all went pair-shaped? Maybe so… A dramatic 2-0 win over the team in second place took us to just a point behind them and Fulham, and two points behind West Brom at the top. There was a real sense that something might be happening. The fact that we only won three more games, in the season Covid-19 arrived, proved it wasn’t.
THREE POINTS
11 February 2023: Fulham (A)
26 April 2022: Fulham 1-0 (A)
Taking three points away from Craven Cottage in April kept the race for automatic promotion going for a few weeks, proving the staying power of Forest last season. In a back-against-the-wall performance, Zinckernagel’s bundled goal was the difference as both teams marched on to the Promised Land. Fingers crossed for the same in February.
THREE POINTS
18 February 2023: Manchester City (H)
28 October 2001: Manchester City 1-1 (H)
Just over two decades ago, as Man City were trying to re-establish themselves, was the last meeting of the two teams at the City Ground. A Chris Bart-Williams goal gave Forest an early lead in the seventh minute but a Darren Ward howler gifted Shaun Goater an equaliser just a minute later. A decent point for Paul Hart’s side as the visitors went on to finish the season as champions.
ONE POINT
25 February 2023: West Ham United (A)
21 January 2012: West Ham United 1-2 (A)
The Hammers’ last season in the Championship saw an unhappy final visit to the Boleyn Ground for the Reds, as two Mark Noble penalties sank Steve Cotterill’s team. A late Lewis McGugan consolation goal counted for nothing, as West Ham went up in the play-offs and Forest managed a solitary three points that month.
NO POINTS
4 March 2023: Everton (H)
8 September 1998: Everton 0-2 (H)
There isn’t another Premier League side we haven’t played at home in this long, the last City Ground game against the Toffees goes all the way back to September 1998. Duncan Ferguson scored a brace in the second half and, incredibly, Forest could’ve gone top of the Premiership — as it was then — had Dave Bassett’s side won. Twenty-four years is a long time in football.
NO POINTS
11 March 2023: Tottenham Hotspur (A)
24 September 2014: Tottenham Hotspur 1-3 (A)
Another cup game against Spurs, almost 10 years on, and a dream debut for Jorge Grant. The midfielder scored after 61 minutes and Stuart Pearce’s side more than held their own for 70 minutes, keeping the North London side at bay. The quality finally shone through though and three late goals from Ryan Mason, Roberto Soldado and Harry Kane finished the game off.
NO POINTS
18 March 2023: Newcastle United (H)
29 August 2018: Newcastle United 3-1 (H)
Another EFL Cup game against the Magpies, a year after the last second round meeting, saw the Reds put three past them again as Rafa Benitez’s side succumbed at the City Ground. Goals from Daryl Murphy, Gil Dias and Matty Cash put Forest through to the third round where they beat Stoke City. An end-of-season slump, as usual, denied us the play-offs, as usual.
THREE POINTS
1 April 2023: Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)
24 August 2021: Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-4 (H)
An EFL Cup game where we didn’t expect to win, and didn’t win. But with a week left in the transfer window, Chris Hughton did put his trust in youth as the likes of Back, Fernandes, Harbottle, Richardson, Fornah, Hammond and Konate all started. Forest managed a point against Derby the following weekend before losses against Cardiff City and Middlesbrough saw Hughton put out of his — and everyone else’s — misery.
NO POINTS
8 April 2023: Aston Villa (A)
28 November 2018: Aston Villa 5-5 (A)
One of Forest’s most breathless games in years saw a 10-goal thriller at Villa Park, in which the visitors were down to 10 men for the final 20 minutes. Boyhood Villa fan Joe Lolley scored one and made four as the Reds led 2-0 and then 3-2, before Lewis Grabban grabbed a late equaliser. A classic.
ONE POINT
15 April 2023: Manchester United (H)
6 February 1999: Manchester United 1-8 (H)
Let’s not talk about this.
NO POINTS
22 April 2023: Liverpool (A)
24 October 1998: Liverpool 1-5 (A)
Or this.
NO POINTS
25 April 2023: Brighton & Hove Albion (H)
4 March 2017: Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0 (H)
A season in which we barely survived, and yet we still put three past the Seagulls in the fixture at the City Ground. A brace for Zach Clough and one from Ben Osborn won the points — our only win in March — a reverse score of the away game earlier in the season. Gary Brazil takes the credit in one of his many caretaker manager stints.
THREE POINTS
29 April 2023: Brentford (A)
20 March 2021: Brentford 1-1 (A)
xG specialists Brentford will have enjoyed winning the stats game while only gaining a point in our first match at the Brentford Community Stadium. A run of draws denied the Bees automatic promotion, while Chris Hughton valiantly looked on from 17th position. Look forward this unique rivalry again next season.
ONE POINT
6 May 2023: Southampton (H)
14 January 2012: Southampton 0-3 (H)
Somehow the Saints have been in the Premier League for a decade… time flies. Their last visit to the City Ground saw them win 3-0 as Steve Cotterill’s side battled to keep things together. Given Southampton’s struggles last season, it will be interesting to see how the two teams compare now.
NO POINTS
13 May 2023: Chelsea (A)
5 January 2020: Chelsea 0-2 (A)
Having drawn Chelsea five times away in the cup this century, it’s inevitable that our last game at Stamford Bridge would be fairly recent. This time around we weren’t completely turned over, and goals from Callum Hudson-Odoi and Ross Barkley saw Lamouchi’s side bow out of the third round of the FA Cup. VAR overruled a penalty decision and an offside goal for the Reds.
NO POINTS
20 May 2023: Arsenal (H)
9 January 2022: Arsenal 1-0 (H)
Last season’s FA Cup run got off to a dramatic start as Cooper’s side saw off Arsenal, in the nation’s first glimpse of Forest’s new threat to its top teams. The North London side never really turned up while the Reds caused havoc with Mikel Arteta’s expensive signings — Grabban deliciously sending the ball into the net in the 83rd minute as we advanced to the fourth round.
THREE POINTS
28 May 2023: Crystal Palace (A)
18 September 2012: Crystal Palace 1-1 (A)
Crystal Palace nearly folded in 2010, seemed to be fellow Championship survivors for years and yet we haven’t played at Selhurst Park for 10 years. Absolutely no idea how that has happened… Promoted in the play-off final in May 2013, the Eagles have been a Premier League side ever since — we, of course, missed out on the play-offs on the final day of that season to Leicester.
ONE POINT
TOTALS
PLAYED: 38
GOALS FOR: 51
GOALS AGAINST: 78
GOAL DIFFERENCE: -27
POINTS: 42
In all but one season (2002/03) since the Premier League switched to 20 teams in 1995, 42 points has easily been enough to stay up.
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