Vitor Pereira has Nottingham Forest back on the front foot, as their Europa League quarter-final first leg draw with Porto proved; they must now address their wretched home form to continue to save their season. George Edwards looks at what the next few weeks could bring
Nottingham Forest’s first venture into Europe for 30 years began in the sunshine of Seville, where the football and the atmosphere provided genuine optimism that the season would be one of further progression and achievement.
Largely, since that moment, the campaign has been far from that, but arriving in the Portuguese heat with renewed belief, facing Porto felt like a full-circle moment from that Wednesday evening in Seville last September.
The blitzing football Forest played under Ange Postecoglou in the first half against Real Betis — coupled with the Australian’s success with Tottenham last season — suggested the Reds had the ability to go deep into the Europa League with conviction.
Progress they have, but largely with struggle, never without doubt. But Vitor Pereira’s arrival has rekindled optimism that European success is within genuine grasp, as is their target of Premier League survival.
Pereira’s predecessor, Sean Dyche, has since been vocal of his belief that Forest would have avoided relegation with ease had he stayed in situ. The reality was results in the league were drifting and points were being dropped against relegation rivals, all while they looked incapable of performing in the Europa League, Dyche seeming content to throw away Europe to preserve Premier League status.
Whilst Pereira’s team selection for Forest’s last two fixtures away at Midtjylland and Porto suggests the league remains the club’s priority — making nine changes from their away win at Tottenham on Thursday evening — the manner in which he has motivated and masterminded performances from a heavily rotated squad has underlined his early impact.
Pereira probably got just about everything he was after out of the first leg at Porto.
While they largely had goalkeeper Stefan Ortega to thank with — seven saves to keep Porto’s score down to one, Forest’s much-changed XI competed, fought and frustrated a side that have lost one home game all season, unbeaten in Europe since Forest felled them back in October.
On another day they’d have won it, with it still being unclear as to why Igor Jesus’s second-half goal was disallowed other than that goalkeepers continue to be a ludicrously protected species’, despite Porto ‘keeper Diogo Costa getting to the ball last and Jesus seeming to control with his shoulder, not arm.
Forest left the Estadio Do Dragão unscathed, with valuable minutes in the tank for returning striker Chris Wood and home advantage under the City Ground lights to get the job done in the second leg next Thursday.
They are competing again, with genuine quality shining through from the whole squad and a sense that the entire club is aligned in thinking, expectation and belief.
But whilst they might look to have turned a corner, there is still one looming issue Pereira is yet to resolve, and that he will be throughly tested on over the next 10 days.
“We’re the Forest, the mighty Forest, we always win away,” was the coveted chant the travelling Reds supporters adopted for much of last season, in tribute to their stellar away league form that saw them lose just six on the road and boast the league’s third best travelling record.
The irony of the chant came around because away success isn’t something usually associated with the club. In their first season after promotion in 2022, Forest won just once away, and eight of their 38-point total was amassed on the road, the worst record in the league.
Success at the City Ground has been the backbone of their recent history, but their shortcomings on home turf, particularly since the new year, has been central to their shortcomings.
Forest have scored just once in their last five home games and have netted twice in seven Premier League home games since they beat Spurs 3-0 in December, only picking up points in stalemates against Crystal Palace, Wolves and Fulham.
And those three points represent exactly where they have fallen short. Going into all three of those fixtures, victory was expected and felt within grasp, but Forest failed to perform under pressure and to play with conviction.
In Europe, they have lost their last two knockout home legs, a first-leg thumping of Fenerbahçe and an eventual penalty shootout win at Midtjylland ensuring Forest’s progression via their away performances.
In the home dugout, its three losses and one draw from Pereira’s first four, the promising signs shown in Forest’s late defeat to Liverpool failing to replicate themselves in the three home fixtures following.
Forest’s last three games — all away — have transformed targets and expectations of what they can achieve this season, but the next three remain equally as integral, as Forest return to Trentside for three games in eight days.
The second leg against Porto is sandwiched between fixtures against fellow Europa League contenders Aston Villa and relegation-troubled Burnley, both teams Forest failed to beat in the reverse fixtures away from home.
Pereira’s tinkering suggests the more established starters will make a comeback to face Villa, who themselves did the opposite of Forest in midweek in their quarter-final win at Bologna. How he navigates from there will be a mystery, and team selection from game to game will likely differ depending on the result of the previous one and the position that leaves them in.
Pereira has reunited Forest, but Forest cannot be great without performances at the City Ground. They have laid the foundations of doing something special as the season’s end nears, but replicating those displays and getting results at home over the coming days is a necessity if those foundations are to be built upon.
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